Doctor’s stark coronavirus warning – We’re going to run out of ICU beds

This is very scary

A Sydney GP says Australians are not doing enough to stop the spread of coronavirus.

The GP, who wished to remain anonymous, told he had been testing patients for coronavirus and he was concerned the virus was now raging undetected in the community.

“It’s got to the point that the guidelines for testing don’t cut it anymore,” he said.

“We’re not testing enough, the guidelines need to be expanded.”

Overseas evidence has shown that once Covid-19 has community transmission, one infected person infects about five others.

“There’s a lot of anger and terror on the GP Facebook groups,” he said.

“It is terrifying, we are on track to run out of intensive care beds between the ninth and the 12th of April.”

Bed numbers

Australia has 2229 intensive care beds.

New South Wales has 874.

Victoria has 476.

Queensland has 413.

Western Australia has 162

South Australia has 188.

The Northern Territory has 22.

Tasmania has 50.

The ACT has 44.

Many hospitals have started to cancel elective surgery, which will free up ICU space.

But it may not be enough.

The number of confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Australia has doubled between every three and four days.

On Monday, Australia had reported more than 1600 coronavirus cases, with several states yet to report.

In China, using data from 70,000 cases, five per cent of those infected with coronavirus needed an ICU bed with a ventilator in order to survive.

Many of those patients required that ICU bed for up to four weeks.

Based on a rate of five per cent, Australia will run out of ICU beds when we hit 44,500 cases. That assumes all the ICU beds are taken by coronavirus patients, not people suffering strokes, heart attacks or complications from pregnancy.

And keep in mind, that is a national number.

Each state will run out of beds at different times.

In NSW, 10 coronavirus patients are already in ICU.

In London, Northwick Park Hospital ran out of ICU beds on Saturday.

The hospital urgently moved the patient to another hospital for care.

At the time, the UK had 3,983 confirmed coronavirus cases.

Schools open

While urging as many people to stay at home as possible, the doctor said he agreed with schools remaining open for essential workers and for children who experience domestic violence at home.

“We need people to stay home if they can,” he said.

“Sometimes going to school is safer than staying home.”

This story first appeared on 7NEWS and has been republished here with permission. 

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